Forecast of Energy Consumption Based on FGM(1, 1) Model

The normal supply of energy is related to the stable development economy and society. Forecasting consumption helps prepare for energy. In study forecasting, different scholars have used forecasting models. This paper uses five-year data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region grey fractional FGM(1, 1) model analyze next six years. Then, three places predicted. advantage score that it can get more accurate prediction results based on a small amount information. this study, relatively outdated information affects accuracy results. However, other models great limitations data. Choosing number research reasonable result. We use make predictions Beijing, growth rate natural gas has slowed down will be basically by 2023. average annual deceleration coal 32%. coke 10%. Crude oil decreased 6.3% annually. Gasoline slowly increasing. kerosene increased about 8% Diesel decreasing. Fuel reduced 17% power exceeds 6%. Tianjin, 5%. Coal every year. 7%. 2.4% 20% Electricity Hebei Province, 15%. Annual 3%. Coke remained stable. 3% increasing, 31%